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Home / china / Will RMB exchange rate guarantee 7 next year? Expert: Still a dzmma | Renminbi devolution | Federal Reserve | People's Bank of China

Will RMB exchange rate guarantee 7 next year? Expert: Still a dzmma | Renminbi devolution | Federal Reserve | People's Bank of China



While the RMB exchange rate was weakened by the Federal Reserve chairman's chairman, the short-term stimulus has been reduced, but experts from the long-term trend of the RMB exchanges in 2019 welcomed experts. (Epic Times, November 29, 2018) It is believed that the CCP's Central Bank's "Guarantee 7" is still a dilemma.

The rupee depreciated against the US dollar on Thursday (November 29) down by less than 200 dollars, and midday prices fell by half.

In the US and China summit G20 is concerned, says Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell. Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell pointed out that the rupee depreciation continues. See results for finding the next business direction.

Some financial statistics were analyzed. The latest information on the fund has had violent consequences on global financial assets and the interest rate of the US dollar has been brought down again.

The US Federal Reserve has been cutting interest rates by two rounds, and the US Treasury will fall by $ 1 per dollar and lower RMB losses. The People's Bank of China's central bank has increased the risk of cutting interest rates next year.

However, for the long-term trend of the RBI exchanges in 2019, experts point out that the renminbi "Guarantor 7" that the CCP has yet to offer is still a dilemma.

The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Institute of World Economics and Politics of International Investments Research Office said that if the Chinese bank does not intervene, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar would exceed 7, but some official pre-exchange rates would have adverse effects on RMB Internationalization. Said Shang Mang. .

The mainstream media says that the reduction of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar in 2018 is based on basic values. On the one hand, China's economic growth has deteriorated since this year. The US economic growth rate has dramatically increased and the difference between China and the United States and the economic growth has dramatically reduced. On the other hand, the CPC's Central Bank cut its quota four times so that the Federal Reserve (Federal) raised interest rates three times in 2018, as China-US monetary policy was withdrawn. This led to the reduction of Sony-US distribution in the money market and bond market.

China's short-term capital stimulus has risen sharply with the Chinese-US stock market, and the new rate of exchange has deteriorated. Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 2.8 percent and the Shanghai Composite Index dropped 19 percent.

In 2019, Chancellor and Song Ming suggests that from a basic perspective, renminbi will have some repercussions, including some specific economic downturns, including the Chinese-American trade conflict and geopolitical influence.

He predicts China's gross domestic product to be 6.5% in 2016, 6.6% in 2016, 6.2% and 6.3% by 2019. At the same time, the US economy will remain strong in the first half of 2019.

Second, Chong Ming believes that the money changes between China and the US's central banks will continue. Previous analysis is generally believed that three times in December 2018 and the federal rate may increase three times (Note: Powel is expected to adjust to double the market after speaking), while the CCP's central bank will not again reduce the RR and cut policy. This means that China and the US trade would be negative and that the RBB did not remove the pressure below the exchange rate, but was lower than the market's previous expectations.

The Central Bank of the Communist Party is still inspired to maintain the stability of the RMB exchange rate, stabilizing investor confidence and mitigating Sino-US trade tensions. Foreign exchange trading, strengthening of capital restrictions, strengthening the market's agricultural controls, and engaging in offshore markets.

However, reducing the investment in the foreign market, Chinese companies will affect foreign investment, adversely affect the RMB's antarastravalkkaranatte, reducing the exchange rate between the market supply and demand, the rate of reducing the transaction, lead to negative pratyaghatannalileykk W in the above equipment such as weakening of the overseas He said. Market price discovery features, etc.

Moreover, if the artificial suppression of the RBB exchange rate, which affects exports, it is not suitable for the stability of the micro-economic growth and the freedom of China's economic policy.

China's economic growth will slow down to 6-6.5 per cent in 2019, and will raise money in the first half of next year, the Chinese Finance Ministry said. There will be two RR cut, which will increase the total amount of social finance (by 1 to 2 percent) and the economic market will reduce interest rates and the average cost of the actual economy.

In the latest report of the Swift, the International Monetized RMB ranking dropped to sixth in October, the second consecutive year, and its downward trend in the second quarter, to 1.70 percent from 1.89 percent in September. The month is falling. #

Editor in charge: Lin Wei


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